TopicShould You Back Winners Or Lay Losers?
Let's say you are looking at a $20,000 claiming race Shadow Racing System and trying to determine which horse is the fastest based on its figs. At first glance it seem that the 1 has the most speed because adding her speed figures for her last three races gives the highest total in the race. She is the morning line favorite and it appears she is the logical choice to win.
However, if you take the time to dig deeper into the race and make some adjustments to those ratings, you may find a good priced winner. For instance, the 2 is a horse dropping in class. Though the 2 has slower speed figures, she was facing tougher competition and faster early pace in each of her races. The question is, does her total for speed over the last three races clearly reflect her ability compared to the 1?
If she faced tougher competition, how should you adjust the speed figures? To the best of my knowledge, there is no easy to use, clearly defined method for adjusting speed ratings according to pace figures. That may seem like bad news at first, but it actually works in your favor. Because no one has found an easy formula, the handicappers who use speed figures don't try to adjust them for class or pace.